no right-wing celebrities allowed!

Going into the Democratic convention one MSM meme was about the “enthusiasm gap” between Obama and McCain and how it obviously favored the former.

Here’s a story from CNN on July 18:

Most pollsters conclude that Obama has a slight lead over McCain when they calculate how people plan to vote. It’s just a few percentage points; too small to decide a race with so much time left to run.

But the pollsters have been measuring the excitement and found that much more one sided.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll last month found that 54 per cent of Obama supporters say they are “very enthusiastic.” Only 17 per cent of McCain supporters said they felt that way.

The CNN site also provides a picture of some enthusiastic Obama fans:

So, yeah, the enthusiasm gap was a favorite talking point of McCain detractors. And right up to the DNC, pundits were pushing this line of reasoning. For example,Marc Ambinder wrote it up in a post at 11 a.m. last Thursday, the day of Obama’s big acceptance speech at the DNC:

The way Obama campaign manager David Plouffe tells it, one of the most important national metrics is way underreported. That’s the enthusiasm gap between supporters of Barack Obama and supporters of John McCain. … This isn’t a McCain-bashing post. McCain’s campaign has got to be concerned about the relative level of excitement that the GOP base feels. One way to generate some heat is to turn Barack Obama into a boogeyman. That’s had a marginal effect so far. Only McCain can close the gap.

Today, the Telegraph picks up on this theme and adds the new plot twist[e.a.]:

A few weeks ago Obama had a monopoly on excitement. Somewhere in July, his campaign began to lose it. But although McCain had a kind of gritty charm, he could not really arouse the crowds as Obama had done. He had respect but not elation on his side.

Then he picked Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential candidate. On all sorts of grounds it was a shrewd pick. … Palin seems to be one of those extraordinary, ordinary people that America throws up at irregular intervals. She combines conservative views with highly unconventional drive and ability. Her appointment has injected real excitement into the Republican campaign.

As I’ve suggested elsewhere, Palin might indeed be an “ordinary” hockey mom, but she is a very ambitious and self-aware “ordinary” person, mindful of her image—which she also happens to put across spectacularly well.

That, of course, is the reason for the hysteria from the likes of Andrew Sullivan, who has devoted dozens of posts to Sarah Palin in the last few days. He obviously senses the huge danger for Obama in this sensationally good-looking and impressively assertive woman hogging the spotlight that has been focused on his chosen candidate. Simply put, Palin matches Obama—and may well even trump him—as People bait. Were Oprah not all in for Obama, Palin would be Oprah bait as well.

It will be interesting to see what kind of media she is sent out to do. (Mark Halperin already has a list of questions for McCain about that.)

Andrew Sullivan is pretty desperate in his desire to see Palin just disappear. His (unintentionally) funniest post is the one where he suggests that a brainwashed bunch of Christianists will vote Palin and McCain into office and turn the country into one big Jesus camp:

The drama that could unfold in the next few days is simply immense. The emotions involved - especially among the Christianist base who have immediately bonded on purely religious and cultural terms with Palin - are epic. What I fear is some kind of pure emotional-religious wave that redefines the GOP for ever as a purely religious party, swamps all genuine questions about governance, celebrates this woman as the epitome of modern conservatism and rides the tidal wave of fundamentalist fervor to the White House. … He doesn’t understand the profound forces he has unleashed with this pick, especially when all the facts are on the table. I predict that as this story develops, it will be Palin who is effectively running for president for the GOP.

What Sullivan fears will happen for Sarah Barracuda is exactly what has happened for Obama: a movement. If the interest she ignited is real, it will not recede. It might just put McCain over the top come November. So Sullivan is left to “argue” that Palin is the next Dick Cheney and the neocons all rolled into one! No wonder McCain picked her—he needs an evil sidekick to blame when things go south!

The Telegraph, however, seens things differently, much the way I did yesterday:

Obama is still ahead in the polls, if only by a few points, and this election campaign has already had more twists and turns than the Amalfi Drive. There will certainly be more twists and turns to come.

Yet that, too, may subtly help McCain. So far, the Obama campaign has consisted of a brilliantly conceived strategy to which the candidate stuck undeviatingly through successes, reverses, and - just recently - the doldrums.

McCain is the candidate who has adapted quickly and ingeniously to rapid changes on the political battlefield. He has shown an ability to exploit his own reverses. He surprises opponents. No one can sensibly predict who will win. But we can say that McCain won’t lose. Obama will have to find some way of defeating him.

That sounds about right to me: McCain knows war, and he’s fighting one.
Fasten your seat belts … and may the best strategist win.

Because this country will need a strategist in the coming years.