brutal reality

I try to maintain some distance from the Democratic campaign, but it’s hard to do. Despite themselves, everyone I know is caught up in this thing. (It’s causing a lot of heated arguments in my neck of the woods, too.)

Here’s a column by Gabor Steingart, Washington correspondent for Der Spiegel, who has the proper perspective (i.e., distance) from which to view the goings-on that are consuming us media and politics junkies and engaged citizens—and keep in mind that he wrote this a week ago, before the Reverend Wright fiasco exploded [e.a.]:

The blows are hard and keep hitting the same sensitive areas. She says he’s inexperienced. He thinks she’s old hat. She spreads it around that a local mafioso figure helped him buy a Chicago mansion. His campaign managers keep calling for a public peek at her tax returns.

Flanked by 12 ranking military figures, she wonders aloud whether he’s ready to be commander-in-chief. He says there’s proof that her judgment in security matters is underdeveloped. She says his eloquent speeches have been stolen from other people. He says she can’t inspire Americans.

This back-and-forth has lasted for months. Republicans can just sit and take notes. When the Democrats finally choose a candidate for president in August, the winner of this internicine party battle will have to go up against all the same accusations from a Republican opponent — but ten times worse. Indeed, what’s uttered now will be fired from a cannon later. With every day that passes, it grows clearer that the winner will hardly be able to savor his victory.

Election campaigns, normally, are more like major ad campaigns. The true politics come later. This time it may be different, though. Halfway through the campaign, a juicy chunk of politics has been extracted from each candidate. Indeed, the White House may only be winnable for the Democrats now through a combined effort — and the candidates should be saying to one another, “compromise, not conflict.” Of course, compromise is just conflict by more sophisticated means.

In light of the political stalemate in the Democratic Party, a fight to the end is no longer worth very much. Young Democrats would never forgive Hillary for winning. On the day of her victory millions of tears would flow. Many academics are also ready to walk through fire for Obama; they wouldn’t even offer Mrs. Clinton their seat on the subway.

His victory, moreover, would be felt by America’s Baby Boomers — the Clinton Generation — as their day of capitulation. The little guys, too, workers with annual incomes of under $50,000, can hardly be moved in any significant majority by his political sermons. They do not share his vision.

A dangerous balance of power has come about that may last for the rest of the campaign for the nomination. All the arguments have been made, all the taunts whispered, all opinions formed. Even if Hillary wins every remaining primary — which is unrealistic — the number of regular delegates she can win can’t crown her as the Democrats’ nominee. The same math works in reverse: Even if Obama wins all the coming fights — also almost impossible — he won’t have enough delegates to assure him of the nomination.

And we’ve all swallowed so much more bitterness since Steingart wrote this column a week ago!