who’s afraid of Rudy?

The NYT’s Adam Nagourney, for one

Mr. Giuliani has created a narrative around his candidacy that presents him as a powerful symbol of national security by stressing his leadership of New York City after the attacks, an image that he augments by pointing to the drop in crime during his tenure at City Hall.

Then, as he should, he points to the weaknesses

At the same time, Mr. Giuliani strays perhaps more than any of his competitors from his party’s base on social issues, as viewers were reminded during the debate on Tuesday when he was challenged for his support for gay rights, abortion rights, gun control and even the re-election of Mario Cuomo, a Democrat, as governor of New York in 1994.

Many students of Republican politics have long been dubious of Mr. Giuliani’s prospects, precisely because of these positions.

Those students of Republican politics may well be right. But the latest Gallup poll tells an interesting story nonetheless—one that suggests (not surprisingly to me, since I said it way back in August 2006*** at a time when McCain was the clear Republican frontrunner+++) that Giuilani is a good crossover candidate.

[T]here has been no significant change in his favorability among independents but [there has been] a slight improvement among Democrats.

For now, it looks like Democrats think they could live with a Giuliani presidency.

On the other hand, it looks like Al Gore may decide to enter the race after all. Doesn’t it?

——–

*** In my vast, bitter anger at the indecency [in Michael Walzer's phrase] of my fellows on the left, here’s what I wrote:

Perhaps Rudy, who is a hundred times as articulate as Bush, who is not only not religious but is demonstrably flawed (divorced, etc.), who is socially tolerant, and who is a formidable debating opponent, will make the perfect foil for the Democrats, who really do need to get their act together. They need to get over being reflexively anti-war, and most of all they need to get over themselves.

+++ Fascinating stuff from an August 2006 Rasmussen poll:

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 36% of Americans classify Giuliani as a political moderate. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say conservative and 15% liberal. Twenty percent (20%) are not sure.

These survey results place Giuliani three points to the left of the political center.

The political center is calculated by subtracting the number of liberals from the number of conservatives among the general public (35% conservative, 18% liberal for a net +17). For Giuliani, 29% conservative minus 15% liberal equals a net plus 14. The plus 14 reading for Giuliani is 3 points away from the plus 17 reading for the general public.

While most candidates want to be as close to the political center as possible, Giuliani may seek the nomination of a party that is to the right of the political center. Among his own party ranks, 43% consider Giuliani moderate, 31% conservative and 13% liberal. However, many pundits believe perceptions of the Mayor will shift as Republican primary voters learn more about his views on abortion and other issues.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, current frontrunner for the 2008 GOP presidential nod, is seen by 46% of Republicans as moderate. Nineteen percent (19%) say he’s conservative and 19% liberal.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the former First Lady—and Giuliani’s “would-have-been” opponent in his abandoned 2002 U.S. Senate race—places 55 points to the left of center.