an opportunity for progress in the Middle East

Grabbing a tiny window of opportunity amidst the imminent “three civil wars” predicted by Jordan’s King Abdullah and before the international shit hits the fan for Israel to do something, Ehud Olmert makes his move:

In a major policy speech, Mr Olmert pledged humanitarian and economic incentives if militants freed a captive Israeli soldier and violence ceased. …

Mr Olmert said Palestinians would see substantive improvements in their lives if they chose the path of peace.

“I hold out my hand in peace to our Palestinian neighbours in the hope that it won’t be returned empty,” Mr Olmert said.

Mr Olmert spoke of releasing many long-term Palestinian detainees in Israeli jails, lifting restrictions on the occupied territories, dismantling settlements and ultimately creating a viable state.

However, he also warned of the dire consequences if violence continued. …

The speech comes against a backdrop of increased international diplomacy.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s aides said talks should resume immediately and unconditionally.

Hamas is skeptical (and, of course, annoyed that Olmert has seized the moral high ground).

Hamas government spokesman Ghazi Hamad called Mr Olmert’s statement a “conspiracy” and “a new manoeuvre”.

“Mr Olmert is speaking about the Palestinian state without giving details about the borders,” Mr Hamad said.

That’s true. And I don’t blame them for being deeply skeptical. As the Beeb notes:

 The BBC’s Jon Leyne in Jerusalem said all Mr Olmert’s pledges have been made before,

and yet: 

[the] importance [of Olmert's pledges] lies in the context in which they are now being made.

The last four months have seen an upsurge of violence in the Gaza Strip which has killed more than 300 Palestinians, including scores of civilians. Five Israelis have also died.

Israeli troops re-entered Gaza - which they quit more than a year ago in a unilateral withdrawal - after Palestinian militants captured a soldier in a cross-border raid in June.

Mr Olmert won elections in March on a pledge to make further unilateral withdrawals, but credibility in the policy was dashed in a summer of conflict in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.