Lebanon, squared

Herb Keinon of the Jerusalem Post looks at the confrontation between Israel and Hamas and sees a rerun of Lebanon:

If the Palestinians from Gaza shoot rockets on Israel as though they were in Lebanon, if they plant roadside bombs as though they were in Lebanon, if they attack IDF outposts and kidnap soldiers as though they were in Lebanon, then they should not be too surprised when Israel treats the Palestinian Authority like Lebanon and acts accordingly.

Which is what the IDF did Wednesday by driving into Gaza, knocking out electricity and knocking down three bridges.

But Keinon also warns of the differences:

But there may be one big difference. Whereas Hizbullah is concerned that a devastating IDF blow in Lebanon could hurt its political standing, and the terror organization has as a result restrained itself, this may not be the case in Gaza.

It is not at all clear whether Israeli military action in Gaza hurts Hamas politically. In what to Israeli eyes seems like the logic-defying reality that is Gaza, it is not at all clear whether blowing up bridges and knocking out electricity in Gaza weakens public support for Hamas, or - paradoxically - whether it might in fact strengthen it.

And he nails the most sensitive point of all [emphasis added]:

Furthermore, it is not even clear that Hamas doesn’t want some IDF action to further its victimization narrative in the world. Already some in the world are asking whether the capture of one Israeli soldier merits the type of military action we saw Wednesday. Besides, some are whispering, what about the 10,000 Palestinians prisoners held by Israel?

The stakes of this confrontation couldn’t be higher. And the information war—the war over narrative (that is, the war for hearts and minds)—is the most important component of all.

No one outside the Arab/Muslim world has yet (as far as I know) called the Israelis’ response disproportionate. (Although it has been criticized in Israel; I don’t remember where I read this. If I find it, I’ll link.)

I’m an atheist, and I don’t pray. But if I were a believer, I’d be praying now. Hmmm. Can I call for a deus ex machina instead?